Understanding the future of entertainment
Toby Holleran - 16/01/19
Is Netflix on track for strong international but weak domestic Q4 performance?

Ampere’s analysis of Internet search activity suggests that Netflix could be on track for a strong Q4 internationally but a weaker-than-anticipated Q4 domestically for paid subscriber net additions. In its Q3 2018 results, the streamer estimated it would see 1.5m domestic paid net additions and 6.1m international, a total of 7.6m paid net additions. Calibrating trend data with previous Netflix subscriber performance suggests that worldwide net additions for the streamer will be 7.7m in Q4 2018, which would be its second most successful quarter for net additions in history, and will bring its international paid subscriber base to 80m. However, things are less rosy for its domestic subscriber base, with a similar methodology suggesting 1.1m net paid additions, its worst Q4 performance since the company suffered net paid subscriber losses in Q4 2011. Overall, however, with this strong international growth 2018 would still be its most successful year for worldwide paid net additions to date, with a total of 27.5m. 

In August, we highlighted the fact that Netflix could wipe out its 2018 free cash flow deficit by increasing monthly ARPU by $1.67. This week, the streamer announced it is hiking its domestic prices by $2 per month, marking an 18% increase on its existing standard package from $11.99 to $13.99 per month. This price increase is also earmarked for much of Latin America (excluding Mexico and Brazil). While this price increase could potentially impact Q1 results, the timing of the announcement will have no effect on its Q4 results, due to be announced tomorrow. 


Tony Maroulis - 15/01/19
Summer sun and mobile data usage peak in holiday season hot spots

European mobile subscribers are showing signs of embracing the EU’s 2017 roam-like-home directive. Mobile data usage is constantly growing in all countries, but the Q3 seasonality of data usage coinciding with the summer holidays is particularly evident in popular European tourist destinations such as Spain, Portugal and Greece, where data usage per subscriber has spiked in both Q3 2017 and Q3 2018. One of the largest increases was observed in Spain, the most popular destination for young UK tourists, where data usage per subscriber increased by 54% between Q2 2018 to Q3 2018. This also coincided with the peak tourist season and the airing of hugely popular ITV reality show Love Island. The spikes in data usage in Q3 become evident after the introduction of the mid-2017 EU regulation that scrapped mobile roaming charges within the EU. Prior to this date most tourist markets showed little or no seasonal spike in data usage. Markets with less seasonal tourist activity also show little or no seasonal spikes.


Fred Black - 7/01/19
YouTube's commissioning strategy increasingly shifts to unscripted

YouTube is increasingly focused on unscripted content as it prepares to make all of its original content available for free in a strategic shift that will bring it increasingly into competition with Facebook Watch.

Olivia Deane - 21/12/18
Amazon stocking up on Prime festive treats

An overview of Christmas movie content available to stream.

Tony Maroulis - 18/12/18
Retail offer gives turbo boost to Amazon Prime Video in newest markets

As Amazon continues to build out its video service, coordinated launch of a Prime delivery service is key to market attack.

Daniel Gadher - 10/12/18
Two companies soon to control one fifth of global content spend

Following the massive mergers of Comcast/Sky and Disney/Fox, one in every five dollars spent on content worldwide will now be spent by these two entities alone.

Richard Broughton - 5/12/18
SportsPro OTT Summit 2018 round-up

Ampere summarises some of the key topics discussed at the Madrid SportsPro OTT Summit 2018, including the issues of fragmentation, latency and localisation.

Orina Zhao - 4/12/18
Rapid expansion and even higher growth potential in China’s SVoD market

China is on course to be the world's biggest SVoD market and still has plenty of headroom for growth.

Richard Cooper - 28/11/18
Developing theatrical markets to become more dominant

Shifts in theatrical market revenues favour populous, developing countries over well-established developed theatrical markets. The changes are driven by programmes of digital multiplex cinema building, made possible by improvements in infrastructure, bringing the modern cinema experience to a wider global audience.

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