Ampere believes that Premier League football rights deal will smash the £10bn barrier for the first time during the auction process which begins in February 2018.
Growth will be driven by new entrants pushing up the international rights valuations
· Business rationales have changed since the previous auction for both BT and Sky, margin pressure and the difficulty of justifying sport spend with cross-selling of broadband mean each is competing on the same terms.
· Amazon also represents a significant potential bidder for international rights, and is one of the key reasons why Ampere expects international rights inflation will exceed that seen in the UK this time around.
· The channel sharing deal between Sky and BT is significant, but does not represent a ‘get out of jail free’ card on spend for either party.
· Ampere believes the business risk of a significant pull-back from Premier League by either BT or Sky means the adage once-a-Premier-League-bidder, always a bidder holds true for both parties.